January 2012 Home Sales - New vs. Existing

Hi Folks,
   Welcome Back !

   In a report this week from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (The "HUD"), sales of new single-family homes from December to January were down almost 1% (3.5% above January 2011), and during the same period of time, Existing Home Sales were up 4.3%, which marked 3 gains in the past 4 months, per the National Association of Realtors (or, "NAR").

   Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, attributed the strong gains in recent contract activity to buyers that are responding to "very favorable market conditions". Yun said that the "uptrend in home sales is in line with all of the underlying fundamentals", and Yun names a few of them, such as "pent-up household formation, record-low mortgage interest rates, bargain home prices, sustained job creation and rising rents.”

   Taking a deeper look at the figures for Existing-home sales, the West jumped 8.8% during the short term, and Distressed homes, which includes "foreclosures and short sales which sell at deep discounts", were at 35% in January, up from 32% in December.

   A conversation on Housing would be incomplete without discussing inventory. According to the NAR, inventories continued to improve, and more specifically, total unsold listed inventory has trended down from a 2007 record, and is down a 20.6% below a year ago. (NRS) The report just released for the New Residential Sales, the HUD listed a supply of 5.6 months at the current sales rate.

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Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #HUD #NAR #singlefamilyhouses #Realtors #householdformation #mortgageinterestrates #homeprices #risingrents #residentialsales #inventories #existinghomesales

Good Ones Up, Bad Ones Down, Thumbs Up

Hi Folks,
   Hope you've stayed warm this mid-January week.

   Some important numbers were released this week, which we like to condense for you, since we know it's hard for you to read through all of the Economic Indicator Press Releases and funky jargon that some of them contain.

   For starters, some good indicators were up. The release of New Residential Construction figures for December showed us that both Single-family housing starts in December were 4.4% above November, and also that Privately-owned housing completions in December were up 9.2% above November. Additionally, the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, released their figures on Existing Home Sales for December, which were up for a third consecutive month, at 5.0% above November (Nationwide). Regionally, the biggest gainer in Existing Homes Sales was the Northeast, where the figures jumped 10.7% from November. These very positive increases led to a statement from NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, who said that we might be seeing signs of a sustained recovery.

   Excess Housing inventory is not good...it's Bad. Why? Simple Supply and Demand Economics...more homes means lower prices. That being said, the NAR release also pointed to a 9.2% drop (less inventory), putting the available inventory at the lowest level since March 2005.

   These figures do not represent the entire puzzle, as there are still many areas still struggling, and additionally, other important figures will be released next week (Pending Home Sales Index, FHFA Monthly House Price Index, and New Residential Sales). Stay tuned for details.

   Thoughts and Opinions are always welcome...

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Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #NewResidentialConstruction #Singlefamily #housingstarts #housingcompletions #Realtors #NAR #ExistingHomeSales #recovery #Housinginventory #ResidentialSales

Higher Home Sales and Lower Housing Inventory

Hi Folks,
   Hope everyone is doing well.

   The National Association of Realtors, or NAR, just released their figures for Existing Home Sales in October, and some the highlights were:

   * Existing-home sales rose 13.5% from October 2010 to October 2011.
   * Regionally, the Midwest had the highest increase (19.6%)
   * Over the September - October period, contract failures soared 18% to 33%
   * Unsold Housing Inventory is on the decline.

   With the solid 12-month figures, the shorter term figures were not as impressive, and as Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said; "Many people who are attempting to buy homes are thwarted in the process”.

   One of the major factors was the spike in contract failures, which can happen for any number of reasons, including declined mortgage applications, appraised value below the negotiated price, etc.

   One glimmer of hope, as I see it, is the drop in foreclosure inventory. If we see that inventory devoured, things will look even more promising, since there is a heck of a lot of it out there !

   What is your interpretation of this data?

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Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #ExistingHomeSales #UnsoldHousingInventory #contractfailures #declinedmortgageapplications #appraisedvalue #foreclosureinventory #NAR

Snapshot of September New Construction and Existing Home Sales

Hi Everyone,
   Welcome back to a beautiful Fall day with the potential for a substantial amount of pumpkin picking in the forecast.

   The September figures for both New Residential Construction and Existing Home Sales were released this week, and aside from fluctuations over the past few months, things look solid when compared side-by-side with the same time 12-months ago.

   New Residential Construction, as you might be aware, is broken down into 3 parts; Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions. Housing Starts (Privately-owned housing starts), were up 15% from August, and 10.2% Above September 2010. This is very encouraging, especially for the Western Region of the U.S., which had figures that were substantially higher than the average (over both the 1-month and the 12-month periods). Building Permits and Housing Completions were also up over the longer-term, but not at the elevated levels as were the Housing Starts.

   Existing-Home Sales, which includes completed transactions for single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 3% from August, but are up over 11% from September 2010, per the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In terms of regional variations, the long-haul big winner was the Midwest, checking in with in excess of a 17% jump in Existing Home Sales from September 2010 through September 2011.

   The chief economist for the NAR, Lawrence Yun, said that, “Existing-home sales have bounced around this year, staying relatively close to the current level in most months”, and he calls it "Irony" that the "affordability conditions have improved to historic highs and more creditworthy borrowers are trying to purchase homes", but, "the share of contract failures is double the level of September 2010", and he interpreted this as pointing to "an unfulfilled demand". Contract failures, incidentally, can result from a declined mortgage application, appraisal values below the negotiated price, issues resulting from the home inspection report, job loss, etc.

   In sum, Housing Starts up 10.2% from a year ago, coupled with a 11% increase in Existing-Home Sales from a year ago, would tend to point to improving market conditions. Do you agree? Do you disagree? Please explain - we'd love to hear your angle on these figures.

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Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #NewConstruction #ExistingHomeSales #Residential #Housing #Building #Permits #singlefamily #cancellations #townhome #condo #Realtor #appraisal #NAR

Buy it, Build it, or None of the Above?

Hi Everyone,

   Hope you are all doing well.

   Today, I'd like to shift gears and try to make sense of the most recent releases of both the New Residential Construction figures for August, along with the NAR Existing Home Sales figures for August. Just as the title asks - "Buy it, Build it, or None of the Above?". Let's see if we can gain a clear response to this question.

   Our first stop - New Residential Construction for August. Building Permits were up this past month and over the past 12 months, Housing Starts were down from July and also down from last August, and Housing Completions were down since July, but were up 2.6% from August of 2010.

   Our next stop - Existing Home Sales for August. Where do we begin? In sum, Existing Home Sales were up 7.7% from July to August, and more than 18.5% since August of 2010. These figures were released by the National Association of Realtors, or "NAR", and the chief economist for NAR, Lawrence Yun, said that "favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations", despite disruptions from Hurricane Irene, which pounded the Northeast at the end of August and took a toll on the Regional figures for the Northeast. However, despite that major storm, the numbers were promising.

   In comments from Ron Phipps, NAR President and broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., he called the market "remarkably affordable" , but he named some large factors holding home sales back, such as mortgages being denied to creditworthy buyers, and "appraised valuations below the negotiated price." These low appraised valuations are a major contributing factor to contract failures/cancellations, and have increased since July and have soared since last August.

   Now, as if you did not already have a sense of the "winner" between New Residential Construction and Existing Home Sales, here are some more key points: Existing Home Sales in the West soared over 18% from July to August, and over the longer-term (since last August), the big winner was the Midwest, with almost a 27% jump in prices. Additionally, the Existing Home Sales release showed that Investors accounted for 22% percent of August Purchases vs. just 18% in July.

   The word on the Street is "Buy it". When both "Build it" and "Buy it" are hot, we will be making big tracks in our Recovery. What do you think?

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Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #ResidentialConstruction #ExistingHomeSales #Realtor #NAR #lowappraisal #risingrent

The Bounce Continues, As Well As The Tug of War

Hi Folks,

   Friday has arrived, and not a moment too soon !

   OK, on Wednesday, we discussed the jump in Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions from July 2010 to July 2011. In our summary from that Blog Post, we said; "To gain a better assessment on that very important piece of the market, we will have to see what the National Association of Realtors (NAR) posts for their Existing Home Sales Index for July". Those numbers were just released, and "the trend is our friend", as the saying goes.

   Existing Home Sales are up "Strongly From a Year Ago", says the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), in their Press Release. By the Numbers, Existing Home Sales are 21% above July 2010. Regionally, the big winner was the Midwest, which was 31.3% above July 2010, but all Regions posted double-digit gains from July 2010.

   Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, made a very interesting comment as to the tug and pull (I call it Tug of War), that is holding back a full-blown recovery vs. and uneven recovery. Yun said that even though the "“Affordability conditions this year have been the most favorable on record dating back to 1970", the issue is that many buyers are being "held back because banks are offering financing to only the most highly qualified borrowers, ignoring a large share of otherwise creditworthy buyers,”. Ron Phipps, NAR President and broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I. says that an "unacceptably high number of potential home buyers" are unable to complete transactions, and that “For both mortgage credit and home appraisals, there’s been a parallel pendulum swing from very loose standards which led to the housing boom, to unnecessarily restrictive practices as an overreaction to the housing correction”. Thus, the "Tug of War".

   We found out this week that since July of last year, Permits, Starts, Completions, and sales of Existing Homes have all increased substantially. What's next? New Residential Sales for July will be released next week, and it will certainly be important to analyze these figures. What do you think? Is this good news?


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Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com


TAGS: #ExistingHomeSales #NAR #BuildingPermits #HousingStarts #HousingCompletions

Housing Numbers Down, But Positivity Remains High

Hi Everyone,
   Glad to have you with me here this Friday. How was your week? Did you meet all of your goals? I hope so.

   There were two very important housing numbers released this week, and I'd like to take a look at each of these, along with some commentary on what these numbers mean for the Housing Market and the Economy.

   The first set of numbers released were the New Residential Construction figures for April, which is broken down into Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions. Overall, there were minor drops in each of these numbers from the previous month (March), but anywhere from 13% to 35% below the figures from April of 2010.

   Additionally, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released their figures for Existing Home Sales, and these did not fare so well, either. Even though the market for Existing Homes made gains in 6 of the last 9 months, the numbers, which represent completed transactions that include single-family, town homes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped almost 1% from March, but almost 13% from April 2010. Some additional notes, per the NAR, show that "Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 9.9 percent", and the very interesting side-note which says that, "First-time buyers purchased 36 percent of homes in April, up from 33 percent in March; they were 49 percent in April 2010 when the tax credit was in place. Investors slipped to 20 percent in April from 22 percent of purchase activity in March; they were 15 percent in April 2010. The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were 44 percent in April."

   Although these numbers point to some not-so-good conditions, not everything and everyone is negative on the Housing Market. Jane Frederick, an architect who specializes in custom residences, says that she believes that, "architects are the "canary in the mine" in that we see the slowdowns first and the increase in work first.", and says that they have signed 2 new contracts for new houses in the past three weeks and that their phone, "is ringing more now than it has in the past three years. "I believe that we are finally moving out of this recession", says Frederick.

   "I recently read an article about the severe drop in housing starts and how that will eventually effect supply and prices.", says John Boyd of MeetingWave.com, who adds that, "I'm not suggesting now is the exact time to buy but seems to be getting close with low rates starting to creep up. Not sure when it will happen with the current joblessness, etc., but there are many folks renting houses, adult children living with parents, etc. that eventually we'll hit a solid floor and see an uptick."

   What's your take on the market. Where do you think we are headed? How soon? Why?

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

TAGS: #residentialconstruction #realtors #existinghomes

Surprises in New Residential vs. Existing Homes?

Hi Everyone,
   All is well in your world, I hope!

   Well, this week, the numbers were posted for both New Residential Construction and Existing Home Sales.

   For New Residential Construction, Building Permits and Housing Starts were up, but Housing Completions were down for the period of Feb 2011 - Mar 2011, however, from Mar 2010 - Mar 2011, all 3 components were down dramatically

   In terms of Existing Home Sales, the numbers trended up from February to March, but down from March 2010 through March 2011.

   "I wasn't surprised by the recent the recent increase in new home construction, and existing home sales for three reasons", says Derek Morton, of Mountain View Title and Escrow. The first reason Morton gives is that, "People that lost their home to short-sale at the beginning of the downturn, are able to begin jump back into the market place if their credit is sufficient.". Morton names the second reason in relation to "fear", saying that, "As the economy begins to improve there is less fear about losing your job, so people are more willing to purchase a home." The third reason that Morton cites is that, "The price of land has dropped to a point that builders can now begin to compete with the price of foreclosures and shortsales.

   Jared Martin, who is the CEO of Keystone Funding, a mortgage company helping providing pre-approvals so potential buyers can begin the home shopping process, says he was not surprised, and that they began, "seeing an enormous number of requests starting in January. So a lot of people starting the process, just not yet pulled the trigger. I think well see an even bigger increase in April....and again in May."Similar to what Morton mentioned above, Martin says that, "Were also not seeing the same worries we saw last year about employment. Most people seem more confident now in the stability of their job"

   Steven, of Sophic, Inc., is also, "not surprised" by these figures, and he says that, "More and more people are taking a serious look at traditional homes and rethinking what their home should be.

   What are your thoughts...were you surprised?

REMINDER - I'm on the Radio Again !

Tomorrow (Saturday Morning), April 23rd, at 8:30AM ET

I will be interviewed live on a local Cleveland (Ohio) radio station (1330 AM WELW), and the interview will also be streamed live at http://www.welw.com/programming/webcast.html. The broadcast is on this Saturday Morning (tomorrow), April 23rd, at 8:30AM ET. I'll be discussing Rent to Own Homes, along with the pro's and con's for both the Buyer and the Seller. The program is titled, "The Home Tool Box", and I am slated for some point during the broadcast (close to the beginning), I believe. As always, be sure to listen in for some great tips, and thanks for your support !

   A Safe and Happy Easter and Happy Passover to those of you observing these Holidays

Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

Existing Home Sales, New Residential Sales, and Home Prices. Ouch!

Hi Folks,
   Hope your week went better than the recent Housing Market numbers!

   On that sour intro, NAR Existing Home Sales were released this week, and they showed us an almost 10% drop from January to February, and nearly a 3% drop from a year earlier. New Residential Sales were even worse, with almost a 17% drop from January to February, and, get ready for this...a 28% drop from exactly one year earlier.

   The Home Price Index that is tallied by FHFA did not fair any better. We saw home prices drop 0.3% from December 2010 to January 2011, but for the 12 months ending in January, prices fell 3.9%. To put these numbers in perspective, the U.S. index is 16.5% below its April 2007 peak.

   So, how was your week...?

Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

Do the Housing Numbers Make You Dizzy?

Hi Folks,


   Hope you've had a great short week, and you're ready for the Feast !

   As we discussed on Monday, there were quite a bit of pivotal numbers coming out, and I wanted to take a look at them together with you. Whether this will aid in your digestion tomorrow will remain to be seen.

   New Residential Sales: October came in at 8.1% below September and 28.5% below October 2009, and compared to the same numbers released last month, which showed a 6.6 percent short term increase, but was also substantially below the previous year (21.5 percent decrease). What happened to another short-term increase? Where did that go?

   Existing-Home Sales: The figures for October came in 2.2% below September, and 25.9% below October 2009, reflecting, of course, the tax credit frenzy during that period of time.

   FHFA Quarterly Index: This purchase-only FHFA house price index showed a 1.6% drop from the 2nd Quarter to the 3rd Quarter, and a 3.2% drop from the same period in 2009. The biggest movers were the Mountain Division of the US, which was down 4%, while the New England Division rose 0.9%

   We still have a long way to go until we start seeing rock-solid numbers coming out with every new release, and it certainly will, as we cannot create more land, just more houses!

   As a final note, we will be doing a very informative piece on Friday, which will cover the topic of Bank REOs and Foreclosures, so be sure to tune-in (and digest).

Have a Safe and Happy Thanksgiving
...and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

4 Years Until a Housing Bottom ?

Hi Folks,
   I hope you had a great weekend, and welcome back. I'd like to thank all of our contest winners from Friday, and be sure to watch for new contests coming up very soon.

   "The Case for a Housing Bottom in 2013-14" - does that stun you? How about the following analysis; "Bubbles tend to rise and fall in symmetry, meaning that a bubble that took seven years to reach its apex typically takes about the same period to time to retrace to its starting point.". These are just a few of the points mentioned in an article on DailyFinance.com by Charles Hugh Smith. The article is worth a read, and for those who own multiple properties, take something for your stomach acid before reading the article.

   On a similar note, there are some important housing numbers being released this week:

   Tue 9/21 - Loan Performance Housing Price Index (MORE INFO HERE)
   Tue 9/21 - New Residential Construction (MORE INFO HERE)
   Wed 9/22 - FHFA House Price Index (MORE INFO HERE)
   Thu 9/23 - NAR Existing Home Sales (MORE INFO HERE)
   Fri 9/24 - New Residential Sales (MORE INFO HERE)

   It's worth it to take a look at these numbers as they come out. There are a million theories out there regarding the economy and the housing market. Is the sky falling? Well, for a lot of folks, it already has.

   I like to look at it as follows: The "Chicken Little" is someone who runs around claiming that the sky will fall, the "Optimist" is one who has the intestinal fortitude and cash reserves to stay the course and stay positive. The remainder are those who have lost their jobs and their homes. It is a sad mix, with a disproportionate amount of people falling into the remainder category.

   You know what? We are a strong country that has been through many hardships before. With a little optimism in the darkest days, the days of prosperity will return...they just have to. Everyone knows this. The questions is..."WHEN?".

Stay Strong !

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !!

Homes Sales Fury, Plus Part 2 of Our Radio Interview

Hi Everyone,

   Let's immediately address the elephant in the room (or the cyber-room, if you prefer) - "Existing home sales drop 27 percent in July" and "Existing home sales dive to 15-year low". Yes, you read these on Yahoo News and all over the Web and on TV yesterday.

   I pose this question to you: We know that the expired homebuyer tax credit is the main culprit for these dreadful numbers. But let's say there was no tax credit in the first place (follow me here - I am not taking political sides)...what would have happened to the housing market? Is it really a guessing game.

   Now, just today, the headline, "New home sales hit slowest pace on record...Unexpected 12.4 percent drop is latest sign recovery fading". Where is all of this headed? Why did we stop the tax credit? We're in a deep enough hole already...at least people were starting to buy homes, build back some confidence, and get back on track. The key is, "confidence", which is psychologically vital to any economic recovery.

   OK, I can rant on and on about this, as well as the demise of "Cash for Clunkers", but the show must go on.

   As promised, I have included part 2 (final part) of the radio interview that we did on the "Unlock Your Wealth Radio Program" (hosted by Heather Wagenhals). As a reminder, this particular segment was about Rent to Own Homes, so please have a listen, and Enjoy !

Have a Great Day, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !