Good Ones Up, Bad Ones Down, Thumbs Up

Hi Folks,
   Hope you've stayed warm this mid-January week.

   Some important numbers were released this week, which we like to condense for you, since we know it's hard for you to read through all of the Economic Indicator Press Releases and funky jargon that some of them contain.

   For starters, some good indicators were up. The release of New Residential Construction figures for December showed us that both Single-family housing starts in December were 4.4% above November, and also that Privately-owned housing completions in December were up 9.2% above November. Additionally, the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, released their figures on Existing Home Sales for December, which were up for a third consecutive month, at 5.0% above November (Nationwide). Regionally, the biggest gainer in Existing Homes Sales was the Northeast, where the figures jumped 10.7% from November. These very positive increases led to a statement from NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, who said that we might be seeing signs of a sustained recovery.

   Excess Housing inventory is not good...it's Bad. Why? Simple Supply and Demand Economics...more homes means lower prices. That being said, the NAR release also pointed to a 9.2% drop (less inventory), putting the available inventory at the lowest level since March 2005.

   These figures do not represent the entire puzzle, as there are still many areas still struggling, and additionally, other important figures will be released next week (Pending Home Sales Index, FHFA Monthly House Price Index, and New Residential Sales). Stay tuned for details.

   Thoughts and Opinions are always welcome...

Would You Like Our Blog Posts Sent Directly to your E-mail? Here's How:

1. Locate the "Follow this Blog by Email" box on the Right Side of your Screen.
2. Type your E-mail address in the box, and click "Submit"
3. Check Your E-mail and Confirm Your Subscription...it's That Simple !

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #NewResidentialConstruction #Singlefamily #housingstarts #housingcompletions #Realtors #NAR #ExistingHomeSales #recovery #Housinginventory #ResidentialSales

Snapshot of September New Construction and Existing Home Sales

Hi Everyone,
   Welcome back to a beautiful Fall day with the potential for a substantial amount of pumpkin picking in the forecast.

   The September figures for both New Residential Construction and Existing Home Sales were released this week, and aside from fluctuations over the past few months, things look solid when compared side-by-side with the same time 12-months ago.

   New Residential Construction, as you might be aware, is broken down into 3 parts; Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions. Housing Starts (Privately-owned housing starts), were up 15% from August, and 10.2% Above September 2010. This is very encouraging, especially for the Western Region of the U.S., which had figures that were substantially higher than the average (over both the 1-month and the 12-month periods). Building Permits and Housing Completions were also up over the longer-term, but not at the elevated levels as were the Housing Starts.

   Existing-Home Sales, which includes completed transactions for single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 3% from August, but are up over 11% from September 2010, per the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In terms of regional variations, the long-haul big winner was the Midwest, checking in with in excess of a 17% jump in Existing Home Sales from September 2010 through September 2011.

   The chief economist for the NAR, Lawrence Yun, said that, “Existing-home sales have bounced around this year, staying relatively close to the current level in most months”, and he calls it "Irony" that the "affordability conditions have improved to historic highs and more creditworthy borrowers are trying to purchase homes", but, "the share of contract failures is double the level of September 2010", and he interpreted this as pointing to "an unfulfilled demand". Contract failures, incidentally, can result from a declined mortgage application, appraisal values below the negotiated price, issues resulting from the home inspection report, job loss, etc.

   In sum, Housing Starts up 10.2% from a year ago, coupled with a 11% increase in Existing-Home Sales from a year ago, would tend to point to improving market conditions. Do you agree? Do you disagree? Please explain - we'd love to hear your angle on these figures.

Would You Like Our Blog Posts Sent Directly to your E-mail? Here's How:
1. Locate the "Follow this Blog by Email" box on the Right Side of your Screen.
2. Type your E-mail address in the box, and click "Submit"
3. Check Your E-mail and Confirm Your Subscription...it's That Simple !

Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #NewConstruction #ExistingHomeSales #Residential #Housing #Building #Permits #singlefamily #cancellations #townhome #condo #Realtor #appraisal #NAR

Realtors And Existing Homes...What It All Means

Hi Everyone,

   I might be shot on the spot for this, but perhaps I won't be...when we think of Realtors, we often think of the Realtors that sell Existing homes...in other words...ones that are already built and are not new construction. If we go with that thought, seeing the clout that Realtors have in the Housing market, we realize how important an indicator the "Existing Homes Sales" figures are (released by the National Association of Realtors®, or "NAR").

   The figures for May were just released, and sales dropped 3.8% from April, but 15.3% from a year ago (when the tax credit deadline was approaching). The figures are the "completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops", per the NAR.

   "There is still lots of pain in many US markets. Foreclosures and short sales, declining prices and tougher lending standards are prohibiting new buyers from getting in the market", says Barak Dunayer, founder of Barak Realty in New York City. He points to some bright spots, such as properties priced below $100,000, along with some "deeply discounted properties" scooped up by investors. He does offer some hope in his local market, and says that in some areas, as in the case of NY City, "the sales of certain properties in specific submarkets have been robust and even back to 2006-2007 levels.", and reminds us of a very valuable lesson: "As real estate is a local market NOT a national market, one must look closely at local market conditions prior to making sound buying and selling decisions."

   This is some sound advice. On Wednesday, the FHFA Monthly House Price Index will be released, followed by the New Residential Sales figures for May on Thursday. What do you think will be the result of those two releases? We'd love to hear your opinion.

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

TAGS: #Realtor #housingmarket #existinghomes

Bad News For Builders?

Hi Folks,
   Hope your week has been amazing, if not productive, thus far.

   The time has come again for the all-important New Residential Construction numbers for February 2011, and we'd like to examine those with you today. As always, we open the floor for your comments, as well.

   Now, as you may already know, when we discuss, "New Residential Construction", this is actually composed of 3 parts: Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions, which is quite intuitive as a flow chart from start to finish.

   From a top-level analysis, everything took a beating, both over the short term (January 2011 through February 2011) and also over the longer term (February 2010 through February 2011). The only exception to this was Housing Completions in the Short term for both Single-family housing completions and Privately-owned housing completions.

   The biggest loser in the short term was Privately-owned housing starts (22.5% below January 2011), with the biggest loser in the longer term checking in as Privately-owned housing starts (20.8% below February 2010).

   Jim Olenbush, a Broker/Realtor in Texas, says that, "Today's numbers may be bad news for home builders, but it is good news for the resale market.", since, as he says, "We have too much inventory in most areas, so a decline in building is a necessary step to recovery."

   What are your thoughts on these housing numbers?

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

Bring a Shovel...It's Getting Deep Out Here !

Good Morning,


   Welcome back, my friends ! Hope you had a joyous Christmas, if you celebrated the Holiday this past weekend. By the way, does anyone have a shovel? We are looking at about 2 feet of snow here in Metro NY...Ho Ho Ho !

   Since this tends to be one of the quietest weeks of the year, I hope you have time to reflect on the past year. Let's reflect today on some housing numbers that came out last week, and I think a visual breakdown will help you see where we've been and possibly where we are headed.

   Last week, the numbers were released for NAR Existing Home Sales, New Residential Sales, and FHFA Monthly House Price Index. Here is how things shaped up:

                                            Change From 10/10           Change From 11/09
NAR Existing Home Sales               +5.6%                                    -27.9%
New Residential Sales                     +5.5%                                    -21.2%

   The National Association of Realtors' Existing-Home Sales index (completed transactions including single-family, town homes, condominiums and co-ops) was up in November after bottoming out in July, and New Residential Sales (sales of new single-family houses) reflected similar numbers. Finally, the FHFA Monthly House Price Index (Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index) showed that U.S. house prices rose almost 3/4 of a percent from September to October.

   We are certainly making strides, as 2010 draws to a close, but we are still well below where we were in 2009. It's going to take considerably more time to get things back up to a speed that is more comforting to the market, however, I think we're off to a good start.

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

Mixed Message from The New Residential Construction Numbers

Hi All,
   It's time for the mid-week "Hello"...so, Hello.

   As the title suggests, the New Residential Construction Numbers were released yesterday, and it has arrows pointing all over the place. There are 3 main components: Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions.

   In terms of Building Permits, for privately-owned units, the numbers came in below the August rate and well below September 2009. Single-Family authorizations were slightly above August. What can we tell from this component. Not much, just that the privately-owned side has taken a large hit.

   For the Housing Starts component, privately-owned starts were slightly above August and well above September 2009, while single-family housing starts were also well above September 2009.

   Finally, for Housing Completions, privately-owned housing completions were well above August, however, substantially below September 2009, while single-family housing completions were well above August. Within these figures, we can certainly see some positivity over the past month vs. the past year. However, I don't want to rain on any ones parade, but the HUD does add a disclaimer as follows, "In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 3 months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, 3 months for total starts, and 5 months for total completions."

   OK, now onto a new topic, which is a response to a question from one of our readers, who has asked us for the locations of our other Social Media accounts. Since we are listed on quite a lot of them, I have listed the main ones for her (and your) convenience:

Twitter: http://twitter.com/homerunhomes
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/homerunhomes
Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/lease2buy
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/homerunhomes
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/lease2buy
Google Profile: http://www.google.com/profiles/lease2buycom
FriendFeed: http://friendfeed.com/homerunhomes
Plurk: http://www.plurk.com/homerunhomes
YouTube: http://youtube.com/user/renttoownleaseoption
ITunes: http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?id=373351426

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !!