Good Ones Up, Bad Ones Down, Thumbs Up

Hi Folks,
   Hope you've stayed warm this mid-January week.

   Some important numbers were released this week, which we like to condense for you, since we know it's hard for you to read through all of the Economic Indicator Press Releases and funky jargon that some of them contain.

   For starters, some good indicators were up. The release of New Residential Construction figures for December showed us that both Single-family housing starts in December were 4.4% above November, and also that Privately-owned housing completions in December were up 9.2% above November. Additionally, the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, released their figures on Existing Home Sales for December, which were up for a third consecutive month, at 5.0% above November (Nationwide). Regionally, the biggest gainer in Existing Homes Sales was the Northeast, where the figures jumped 10.7% from November. These very positive increases led to a statement from NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, who said that we might be seeing signs of a sustained recovery.

   Excess Housing inventory is not good...it's Bad. Why? Simple Supply and Demand Economics...more homes means lower prices. That being said, the NAR release also pointed to a 9.2% drop (less inventory), putting the available inventory at the lowest level since March 2005.

   These figures do not represent the entire puzzle, as there are still many areas still struggling, and additionally, other important figures will be released next week (Pending Home Sales Index, FHFA Monthly House Price Index, and New Residential Sales). Stay tuned for details.

   Thoughts and Opinions are always welcome...

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Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #NewResidentialConstruction #Singlefamily #housingstarts #housingcompletions #Realtors #NAR #ExistingHomeSales #recovery #Housinginventory #ResidentialSales

What Happened To Residential Construction In Our Country?

Hi Folks,

   Welcome back !

   As you may be aware, late last week the May 2011 figures for New Residential Construction were released, and we'd like to take a look at these figures today, which are broken down into 3 components; Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions.

   Building Permits for privately-owned housing units were up 8.7% from April, and 5.2% above May 2010, while Single-family authorizations were 2.5% above April. Housing Starts for privately-owned housing was up 3.5% from April, but down 3.4% from May 2010, with single-family housing starts 3.7% above April. The last piece of the equation was Housing Completions, with Privately-owned Up 0.4% from April, but down 22.5% from May 2010.

   "Perhaps my type of perspective on these numbers is interesting", says Bo Hammond, VP of Sales for the Coastal Lumber Company, which supplies raw material for housing attributes, mouldings, flooring, and cabinetry, and advises that his perspective is from a "practical sense".

   Hammond says that we are, "overbuilt from a residential construction standpoint, and the allure of home ownership has faded for those wage earners who historically would have been buying their first house and starting families." He continues to say that the affect on jobs of the recent recession has, "fundamentally changed the perspective of the emerging generation that are getting out of school and deciding to live at home, rent, get married, etc."

   Hammond says that uncertainty in jobs, home values, and financial security has essentially "tabled a normal progression that would encourage behavior that would have building permits and residential construction increasing.", but says, "In lieu of this, remodeling and multi-family construction have been the larger positive influences, but those combined are volatile and don't have the ability to impact GDP like healthy residential construction had 5-7 years ago."

   "I would just reinforce that the market for new homes is extremely competitive right now. This is a great time to buy due to the affordability of homes and interest rates.", says Michael F. Dillon, Jr., Executive Director of the Builders Association of Northern Nevada, who also reminds us that, "Homeowners will still receive a great tax incentive to buy a home and build equity."

   What do you think of the recent numbers? What would you attribute the huge dip on Building completions from just one year ago? We'd love to hear your take on things.

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

TAGS: #residentialconstruction #remodeling #taxincentive

Housing Numbers Down, But Positivity Remains High

Hi Everyone,
   Glad to have you with me here this Friday. How was your week? Did you meet all of your goals? I hope so.

   There were two very important housing numbers released this week, and I'd like to take a look at each of these, along with some commentary on what these numbers mean for the Housing Market and the Economy.

   The first set of numbers released were the New Residential Construction figures for April, which is broken down into Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions. Overall, there were minor drops in each of these numbers from the previous month (March), but anywhere from 13% to 35% below the figures from April of 2010.

   Additionally, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released their figures for Existing Home Sales, and these did not fare so well, either. Even though the market for Existing Homes made gains in 6 of the last 9 months, the numbers, which represent completed transactions that include single-family, town homes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped almost 1% from March, but almost 13% from April 2010. Some additional notes, per the NAR, show that "Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 9.9 percent", and the very interesting side-note which says that, "First-time buyers purchased 36 percent of homes in April, up from 33 percent in March; they were 49 percent in April 2010 when the tax credit was in place. Investors slipped to 20 percent in April from 22 percent of purchase activity in March; they were 15 percent in April 2010. The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were 44 percent in April."

   Although these numbers point to some not-so-good conditions, not everything and everyone is negative on the Housing Market. Jane Frederick, an architect who specializes in custom residences, says that she believes that, "architects are the "canary in the mine" in that we see the slowdowns first and the increase in work first.", and says that they have signed 2 new contracts for new houses in the past three weeks and that their phone, "is ringing more now than it has in the past three years. "I believe that we are finally moving out of this recession", says Frederick.

   "I recently read an article about the severe drop in housing starts and how that will eventually effect supply and prices.", says John Boyd of MeetingWave.com, who adds that, "I'm not suggesting now is the exact time to buy but seems to be getting close with low rates starting to creep up. Not sure when it will happen with the current joblessness, etc., but there are many folks renting houses, adult children living with parents, etc. that eventually we'll hit a solid floor and see an uptick."

   What's your take on the market. Where do you think we are headed? How soon? Why?

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

TAGS: #residentialconstruction #realtors #existinghomes

Surprises in New Residential vs. Existing Homes?

Hi Everyone,
   All is well in your world, I hope!

   Well, this week, the numbers were posted for both New Residential Construction and Existing Home Sales.

   For New Residential Construction, Building Permits and Housing Starts were up, but Housing Completions were down for the period of Feb 2011 - Mar 2011, however, from Mar 2010 - Mar 2011, all 3 components were down dramatically

   In terms of Existing Home Sales, the numbers trended up from February to March, but down from March 2010 through March 2011.

   "I wasn't surprised by the recent the recent increase in new home construction, and existing home sales for three reasons", says Derek Morton, of Mountain View Title and Escrow. The first reason Morton gives is that, "People that lost their home to short-sale at the beginning of the downturn, are able to begin jump back into the market place if their credit is sufficient.". Morton names the second reason in relation to "fear", saying that, "As the economy begins to improve there is less fear about losing your job, so people are more willing to purchase a home." The third reason that Morton cites is that, "The price of land has dropped to a point that builders can now begin to compete with the price of foreclosures and shortsales.

   Jared Martin, who is the CEO of Keystone Funding, a mortgage company helping providing pre-approvals so potential buyers can begin the home shopping process, says he was not surprised, and that they began, "seeing an enormous number of requests starting in January. So a lot of people starting the process, just not yet pulled the trigger. I think well see an even bigger increase in April....and again in May."Similar to what Morton mentioned above, Martin says that, "Were also not seeing the same worries we saw last year about employment. Most people seem more confident now in the stability of their job"

   Steven, of Sophic, Inc., is also, "not surprised" by these figures, and he says that, "More and more people are taking a serious look at traditional homes and rethinking what their home should be.

   What are your thoughts...were you surprised?

REMINDER - I'm on the Radio Again !

Tomorrow (Saturday Morning), April 23rd, at 8:30AM ET

I will be interviewed live on a local Cleveland (Ohio) radio station (1330 AM WELW), and the interview will also be streamed live at http://www.welw.com/programming/webcast.html. The broadcast is on this Saturday Morning (tomorrow), April 23rd, at 8:30AM ET. I'll be discussing Rent to Own Homes, along with the pro's and con's for both the Buyer and the Seller. The program is titled, "The Home Tool Box", and I am slated for some point during the broadcast (close to the beginning), I believe. As always, be sure to listen in for some great tips, and thanks for your support !

   A Safe and Happy Easter and Happy Passover to those of you observing these Holidays

Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

Bad News For Builders?

Hi Folks,
   Hope your week has been amazing, if not productive, thus far.

   The time has come again for the all-important New Residential Construction numbers for February 2011, and we'd like to examine those with you today. As always, we open the floor for your comments, as well.

   Now, as you may already know, when we discuss, "New Residential Construction", this is actually composed of 3 parts: Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions, which is quite intuitive as a flow chart from start to finish.

   From a top-level analysis, everything took a beating, both over the short term (January 2011 through February 2011) and also over the longer term (February 2010 through February 2011). The only exception to this was Housing Completions in the Short term for both Single-family housing completions and Privately-owned housing completions.

   The biggest loser in the short term was Privately-owned housing starts (22.5% below January 2011), with the biggest loser in the longer term checking in as Privately-owned housing starts (20.8% below February 2010).

   Jim Olenbush, a Broker/Realtor in Texas, says that, "Today's numbers may be bad news for home builders, but it is good news for the resale market.", since, as he says, "We have too much inventory in most areas, so a decline in building is a necessary step to recovery."

   What are your thoughts on these housing numbers?

Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

New Residential Construction Breakdown And Analysis

Hi Folks,
   Happy Friday, and glad to be with you today.

   Earlier this week, the New Residential Construction numbers for January 2011 were released, and since these numbers are quite important, we're going to review them today, along with some expert commentary.

   The New Residential Construction numbers are composed of Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions. Both Building Permits and Housing Completions were down for both the December 2010 - January 2011 period, as well as the January 2010 - January 2011 period. Privately-Owned Housing Starts, however, were up during the December 2010 - January 2011 period, but down for the January 2010 - January 2011 period.

   Kirk Nace, an active investor since 1981 who has owned hundreds of units, says that, "Like many other Real Estate reports, a monthly snap shot can be greatly misrepresentative of the real underlying situation". Additionally, Nace says that the "December #'s were partially due to builders beating the new codes by submitting applications early".

   David Rice of New Home Star Corp, says that, "While January numbers did come in below what we all may have hoped, it was by a small margin. Given the inclement weather throughout much of the Country, we may feel better about the numbers. I know that, in some of our divisions, builder offices were closed for two or three days. If someone closed a manufacturing plant for two or three days, you wouldn’t be surprised if production was down for the month by 10%, would you?"

   Additionally, Nace says that he has, "spent decades working with the top professionals around the country in and related to the real estate fields", and says that, "from what we see on the streets, we are still several years away from a market bottom. The inconsistencies being reported to Mr/s Average Joe Homebuyer has created more fear and confusion than anything. This fear has led to wide spread paralysis of these potential buyers." In closing, Nace says that, "We don’t see the situation changing until there exists a perceived level of stability and certainty."

   Well, on that sobering note, we have come along way. What are your thoughts on this?

Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

Numbers, Numbers, and More Housing Numbers

Hi Everyone,


   It is Friday, and believe it or not, we are just one week away from Christmas, and two weeks from the start of a New Years. It's always an exciting time, since good change is on the way !

   As always, the wheels of our Government are grinding away, and the good folks monitoring the housing market have provided us with some new numbers for New Residential Construction, of which will take a quick look at today.

   As we know from the previous release of these numbers, and as noted in this blog, "New Residential Construction" is broken down into Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions. Building Permits were mixed. Housing Starts were up for one segment since the last release, however, down from the same time last year. Finally, the biggest numbers came from the Housing Completions portion, or should I say, "lack of" Housing Completions, with privately-owned completions falling over 14% from October, and close to 40% from last year. That is one heck of a tumble !

   Next week, there are 4 more indicators being released, which are the Loan Performance Housing Price Index (Tue 12/21), NAR Existing Home Sales (Wed 12/22), FHFA Monthly House Price Index (Wed 12/22), and New Residential Sales (Thu 12/23), all of which will be make for a very interesting week.

   We aim to please !

Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com