The Return Of Subprime Mortgages?

Hi Folks,
   Welcome back, and glad to have you here. It is October, and as much as I don't want to face it, it is the month that I will turn the big 4-0 (On 10/31 - Halloween). Oh well !

   One other sad thought is one of the people who have been hit between the eyes due to the subprime mortgage crisis. Subprime mortgages are loans made to people with less than perfect credit or financial situations, and these types of loans dominated the lending market until the house of cards fell down, literally. Subprime has become a household name, and most people cringe when they hear it...but there are others who get very excited at the very thought of these types of loans!

   According to Preston Howard, a Mortgage Broker/Owner with Rose City Realty, Inc. in Pasadena, California, "subprime financing is poised to make a re-entry into the market place in a big way", in a recent story he wrote, titled, "Can Subprime Make A Comeback?", on the BrokerAgentSocial.com Website. "Where there are payments to be chopped up into little pieces, someone on Wall Street will dice and transform them into some form of marketable security to be sold to the masses at a cost, and generate profits for the investment bank that brings them to the Stock Exchange floor", says Howard

   But how can this happen, after what we have all suffered from the subprime fallout? "The answer lies in the structure and the insurance", Howard says, pointing to a Money Backed Securities (MBS) offering with "seven times the insurance protection that is normally required for a high quality, private securities offering", but has earned a "debt rating that is better than the United States of America".

   Are we really going to do this all over again? At first glance, the pool of sub-par mortgages looks more like FHA loans (as opposed to subprime deals), with a 4% yield, >640 Credit Scores of the borrowers backing the mortgages, and an LTV at about 95% on average. But, as Howard adds, "It appears as though the product is being packaged in a “sub-quality wrapper” to prep the market for additional, lesser quality deals in the future."

   Let's look at the good here: "this could be the start of something beautiful as the housing market is languishing in a rut, awaiting products to unleash pent up demand", says Howard. Very true.

   "Conversely, this could be the lever that pulls us into a second recession", says Howard, who says that there is a moral hazard potential here, where the needs of unqualified borrowers will take a back seat to the fees generated. This is a big risk.

   Are you willing to take the risk? Will it hurt us again, or have we learned our lesson?

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Have a Great Week, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog: http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Websites: http://www.lease2buy.com and http://www.homerunhomes.com

TAGS: #subprimemortgage #MoneyBackedSecurities #MBS #FHAloan #lending #mortgagebroker #financing #WallStreet #recession

Housing Factors Contributing to Market Direction

Hi Folks,

   Hope you've had an outstanding week.

   Today, I'd like to share a very interesting and very informative story that I came across that fits perfectly within the framework of our discussions here on our Blog. The story, which was written by Ruth Simon and Jessica Silver-Greenberg for the Wall Street Journal (and appeared on Yahoo Real Estate), is titled, "Why It's Time To Buy".

   The story discusses what it calls the, "five-year national housing bust", and discusses some positive signs, short-term concerns, long-term concerns, a 5-Year Outlook, and touches on the topic of Renting vs. Buying.

   Among the positive signs that were cited are the 50-year lows that mortgage rates have dropped to, as well as the affordability of homes. They also referred to the inventory of homes as, "A historic glut of homes", that has created a buyer's market. They did point to the fact that changes are coming, and mentioned a reference from Moody's Analytics that says the number of distressed sales will begin to fall in 2013 (and prices will increase). Additionally, Home Building is at "standstill" (lower chance of inventory/supply getting worse), and they also cited "Household Formation" (a Demographic Indicator) is on the rise, which promises, as they say, "to take a bite out of the glut in coming years."

   When looking at the overall movement of the Housing Market, the short-term looks bleak, as the authors point to Weak Job growth, the fact that Foreclosure sales encompass the lion's share of market, and that Home Prices will fall more in the coming months, per some Economists. For the longer term, they point to the positives of home ownership, such as the ability to deduct the mortgage interest on your taxes, and well as the ability to decorate, paint, and change anything that you want on your own home, "without having to clear it with a landlord." They added to this a, "5-Year Outlook", that points to the coming era of post-foreclosure overload (after the majority of the foreclosure-related inventory), has been cleared, and as housing economists say, "the traditional drivers of the housing market—demographics, affordability, loan availability, employment and psychology—should take over."

Some of the more specific factors they names that will make or break local markets over the next few years, were as follows:

* Household formation is on the rise, per Moodys, and is projected to increase from 950,000 in 2010 to approx 1.2 million over the next decade.

* Higher demand for second homes, per Moodys, should begin, "sopping up excess inventory in much of the country over the next two years"

* Economic Conditions - "Rising incomes and increased employment tend to give more would-be buyers confidence and buying power."

* Mortgage financing is available for people with good credit, but, "nearly impossible" for people who do not meet the lending guidelines.

* Another interesting point that was mentioned was that, "higher down-payment standards are locking some would-be buyers out of the market.", and they pointed to a recent survey by Zelman Associates that showed that, "Just 35% of renters have the minimum 3.5% down payment needed for an FHA loan on the median-priced home in their market"

   As for the "Renting Vs. Buying" question that many people have pondered, the authors stated that, "Renting is still cheaper than buying in most markets, but rising rents and falling house prices mean that, in some areas, this won't be the case for long.". They said that according to Moody's Analytics, Buying a home is already cheaper than renting in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Orlando, Fla., and that for markets such as Dallas, Las Vegas and Sacramento", "the equation is likely to soon turn in favor of homeownership if current trends persist,"

   One very practical suggestion mentioned was as follows: to compare rental prices for similar properties", and to, "wait until the monthly outlays, including taxes and insurance, are equal." and additionally, they said, "You also could factor in the tax savings of owning, which would make buying more attractive even if the gross monthly outlay is slightly higher."

   In light of the Economic & Housing Market Analysis information, coupled with the Rent to Own perspective that we try to bring to you, this story was a direct hit for you...whether you're a homeowner, home seller, a realtor, or real estate investor. What are your thoughts and comments on this story?

Have a Great Weekend, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com

TAGS: #Foreclosure #mortgagerates #realestateinvestor #rentalprices #renttoown #WallStreet

How Much is Too Much Government Involvement With Home Owners?

Hi Everyone,

   Hope you had a nice and relaxing weekend.

   Ever since the economic crisis exploded on the scene, there has been much debate on the topic of the Government's involvement in our every day lives, from the big bank bailouts on Wall Street, on down to homeowner bailouts/modifications on Main Street. How much is too much?

   We put out this question, and we received the strongest response from Pablo Solomon, who resides in Texas. "I grew up in Houston.", says Solomon, where, "The city had codes for every board and wire, and yet would let developers build entire neighborhoods in a flood plain. The same was true for the Gulf Coast. You had to have every detail permitted while allowing you to build on a sandy barrier island that was certain to wash away with the first hurricane. How crazy is that?".

   Solomon also provided his comments on the tax credits for homeowners and the bailout of homeowners, and he says that, "'social justice through redistribution of the wealth' has created more problems than it has solved.", and as far as bailing out homeowners, he says, "what is good--or bad--for the Wall Street Goose should apply to the local homeowner Ganders.", and Solomon says that he is, "amazed that many who see evil in bailing out mismanaged businesses, see good in bailing out mismanaged households."

   Solomon also sees the housing bubble as much due to, "Main Street people taking advantage of the easy loan situation as were Wall Street crooks.", and says that, "There are dirty hands at every level."

   In some final comments, Solomon, an artist known primarily for drawings and sculptures of dancers, muses, "Can socialized housing be far behind?". He questions the following; "Why should taxes payers have to borrow money from the Chinese to rescue either businesses or home owners who made stupid decisions. Even if sad situations result from sad circumstances--that happens. Nature has no bailouts and yet things eventually level out."

   Obviously, these opinions are those expressed by Mr. Solomon, however, I'm sure there are some opposing opinions. Do you care to share with us?

Have a Great Day, and Happy Rent-to-Owning !
Regards,
Rob Eisenstein
HomeRun Homes Blog http://blogging.lease2buy.com
HomeRun Homes Website http://www.lease2buy.com


TAGS: #bailout #modification #taxcredit #housing